Is the Malian military losing against JNIM?

Two major developments in the second half of July shed light on the current state of the conflict in Mali, highlighting the Malian military's continued reliance on its Russian partners, Africa Corps; its growing losses of helicopters and aircraft; and the ability of Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) to pursue long-term objectives over many years. 

Héni Nsaibia, West Africa Senior Analyst at ACLED, said: 

“Events over the past week show that the Malian military and Africa Corps do not control the surrounding terrain or key transit routes around the Anefis military base in northern Mali, even though they successfully held the military base following a prolonged battle from 4 to 9 July. When, on 18 July, JNIM and the Azawad Liberation Front ambushed a joint convoy near Tabrichat in the Gao region, Africa Corps reportedly left dozens of Malian soldiers behind. The militants subsequently captured and executed many of the soldiers, demonstrating how exposed Malian forces become when operating without the support of their Russian partners.

“This dependence on Russian support is also reflected in events in central Mali. On 18 July, JNIM overran the military camp in the village of Kouakourou. The following day, as JNIM fighters were forcibly displacing the locality's residents, a formation of three helicopters deployed to the area. The group was able to shoot down and destroy one of the Mi-24 helicopters, killing its crew. JNIM later released drone footage of the downed aircraft and videos of the wreckage, illustrating the growing role of drones for reconnaissance and targeting on the battlefield. 

“These incidents also underscore the mounting pressure on the Malian military's air capabilities. The military relies heavily on aircraft, including helicopters and armed drones, and these losses are likely becoming increasingly difficult to absorb, as this was the second helicopter shot down in just two weeks.

“The village of Kouakourou is significant because it was the first locality where JNIM imposed a siege nearly a decade ago, in 2017. The fact that the group eventually succeeded in emptying the town of a population it largely perceives as collectively hostile and state-aligned clearly demonstrates a sustained long-term strategy. The group has repeatedly shown that it is willing to pursue its objectives over the long run, and Kouakourou is a clear example of that approach.”