Mexico: El Mencho’s killing triggers nationwide escalation — Expert comment

On 22 February, Mexican security forces killed Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), also known as El Mencho, during an operation in Tapalpa, Jalisco. The killing of the cartel leader, along with other CJNG members, immediately triggered clashes as well as broader retaliatory actions by the criminal organization throughout the country. According to reports, violence, including narco roadblocks and arson attacks against businesses, has occurred in at least 20 states, including in the cartel’s strongholds in Jalisco, Colima, and Nayarit states. The scale and geographical spread of the retaliation reflects the cartel’s operational reach — with a presence reported in most states (see map below) — and its rapid mobilization capacity. 

The burning of vehicles and setting up of roadblocks mirrors a well-established tactic among cartels to slow down security operations or display power. It is a strategy that the CJNG has used repeatedly, as was seen when the cartel carried out a wave of roadblocks and retaliatory violence throughout Michoacán and Jalisco following the release of a local cartel leader in March 2025. 

More worryingly, though, the cartel has also clashed with security forces in the immediate aftermath of Cervantes’ death, killing dozens of security officers, and reportedly used drones in their retaliation. This response is indicative of a wider and deadlier use of explosive-laden drones by criminal groups in recent years in the country and points to how drones could play a role in the cartel’s response and amplify their operational reach. At the same time, the cartel’s potential to target security infrastructure signals organizational resilience that could lead to the proliferation of deadly clashes with state forces in the coming weeks.

El Mencho’s killing takes place amid heightened security operations since the beginning of President Claudia Sheinbaum’s mandate in October 2024, which marks the end of her predecessor’s “Hugs, not bullets” security policy (see graph below). In line with this shift, clashes between Mexican security forces and non-state armed groups increased by 26% in 2025 compared to the previous year, in addition to different operations aimed at destroying criminal groups’ assets. While partly prompted by the state’s response to internal disputes between the Sinaloa Cartel’s factions, Mexico’s security efforts have also come in response to US pressure to curb drug trafficking and migration flows through threats of tariffs and military intervention. Navigating pressure from her neighbor, Sheinbaum emphasized negotiation and collaboration with the US rather than confrontation. As a recent example, the US reportedly contributed to the operation against El Mencho by providing intelligence. 

Yet, the greater emphasis on taking down cartel leaders and the kingpin strategy is a high-risk one that has, in the past, led to heightened inter- and intra-cartel violence. For example, hostilities between rival factions of the Sinaloa Cartel following the arrest of one of its leaders in July 2024 continue to drive lethal violence in various states, despite security operations. Although the CJNG had operated under a more vertical command structure, unlike the syndicated organization of its rival, the killing of El Mencho raises the risks of a power struggle among its leadership that could translate into violence. 

Early developments suggest that the most immediate risk is not internal collapse, but rather a coordinated show of force by the CJNG and its allies against security forces. Rival groups, however, might seek to exploit any perceived destabilization within the CJNG to push for territorial control, especially in states that are highly disputed by the CJNG and other criminal groups, such as Michoacán, Guanajuato, and Guerrero, among others.

For further information, contact the ACLED press office, [email protected]. 

ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data) is a global monitor that collects, analyzes, and maps data on conflict and protest. ACLED provides detailed information to help identify, understand, and track patterns and trends in conflict and crisis situations around the world.