Mozambique travel warning: Why the fight against Islamic State is different this time

On 21 August, the US State department issued its latest travel warning for Mozambique. This advised against all travel to Cabo Delgado province, as well as to districts in neighboring Nampula province to the south, and the Niassa Special Reserve in Niassa province to the west. 

ACLED’s Southeast Africa Expert, Peter Bofin, said:

“The US is warning people not to travel to northern Mozambique as Islamic State-linked fighters once again push into the Niassa Special Reserve. But this time, they are facing much stronger resistance.

“Islamic State Mozambique fighters have pushed towards the reserve again this month, in only their second significant incursion into the area since April 2024. 

“The last time this happened, the consequences were serious. Insurgents were able to move through the reserve largely unopposed, a well-known hunting lodge was destroyed and over 2,000 people living in villages in Niassa were forced from their homes. The violence hit the reserve’s lucrative hunting tourism industry, with the US issuing its first warning for the area two months later. 

“The experience this year has been quite different. Mozambican military pursued ISM fighters into the reserve and confronted them at least four times in August on the Cabo Delgado side of the reserve. At least 20 ISM fighters died in these clashes, 16 of those at a clash at the Shamba Kubwa gold mines close to Niassa province.  

“This success has been partly due to conservation and tourism interests collaborating with the military. They have local rangers who know the area better than the insurgents, as well as air assets that can track groups of insurgents. Both can provide valuable intelligence to counterinsurgency forces that they did not have when fighters entered the area previously

“This won’t be the insurgents last foray to the Cabo Delgado side of the reserve. Gold mining sites are an increasingly important source of money for the group, through extortion, ransom and access to the gold itself. If authorities can keep them out of Niassa, they may throttle some of the group’s access to support networks in Tanzania, and be able to focus counterinsurgency operations in Cabo Delgado.”