Nohad Eltayeb on Sudan’s factions strain of external support

Nohad Eltayeb, Senior Research Assistant at ACLED, said: 

“The war involving Iran is likely to indirectly reshape the balance of power in Sudan by straining external support networks tied to the Gulf. It is likely that ongoing regional tensions could affect the level of support the  United Arab Emirates provides to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), especially given that the RSF is highly dependent on Emirati backing.

“For the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), the Iran war creates a more ambiguous but potentially advantageous positioning. While the SAF benefits  from a broader but variable network of support, including Saudi Arabia, Eritrea, Egypt, Turkey, and Iran, the wider confrontation increases scrutiny around Islamist links, even if these are not directly tied to Sudan’s conflict. At the same time, rising international focus on Red Sea security elevates the strategic importance of SAF-controlled eastern Sudan, allowing the army to position itself as a more reliable  security partner amid escalating regional tensions.

“Beyond these immediate backers, there is a second layer of regional implications: Ethiopia has shown growing interest in securing access to the Red Sea, and there is rising anticipation of a potential conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea. If such a conflict were to erupt, it would have immediate repercussions for Sudan, as both Ethiopia and Eritrea have local militias aligned with either the RSF or the SAF. This could effectively turn Sudan into a proxy battleground, where regional actors pursue their interests indirectly while also influencing their allied militias.

“Overall, any escalation in the region risks transforming the Sudan conflict into a broader and more fragmented regional war. “