Olha Polishchuk on Ukraine’s targeting of Russia’s oil revenues amid the Iran conflict-driven price surge

Olha Polishchuk, Eastern Europe Research Manager at ACLED, said: 

“Ukraine is increasingly targeting Russian oil infrastructure in what appears to be a deliberate effort to blunt the economic windfall Moscow is receiving from global energy market disruptions linked to the US-Israel-Iran war. 

“In the first week of May, Ukrainian long-range drone operations have continued to hit energy facilities deep inside Russia, including a Baltic sea port, an oil refinery, and sanctioned oil tankers, reinforcing what now appears to be a sustained campaign rather than a temporary escalation. These strikes come alongside ongoing Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities, highlighting an entrenched phase of reciprocal deep-strike warfare — one that is unfolding despite continued talk of ceasefires.

“This builds directly on an intensified campaign throughout April, during which the number of Ukrainian strikes on oil infrastructure doubled compared to the previous month. On 28 and 30 April, Ukrainian drones struck the Tuapse oil refinery and terminal in Russia’s Krasnodar region — a key export hub — causing fires, environmental damage, and evacuations, after earlier hits on the same facilities on 16 and 20 April. Across that week, Ukraine also targeted refineries in four Russian regions, an oil depot in occupied Crimea, and a sanctioned tanker in the Black Sea. 

“The timing is critical: As global energy markets tighten amid the Iran war, Russia benefits from rising oil prices and a temporary easing of US sanctions in March and April. Kyiv’s response has been to go after the infrastructure underpinning that windfall — seeking not just physical disruption, but to erode the very revenue streams cushioning Russia’s war effort. Earlier strikes on export routes showed how quickly this can translate into losses, and the continued tempo into May suggests Ukraine is deliberately trying to offset Russia’s external economic gains.”