Pearl Pandya on South Asia’s fears as Iran war targets the Gulf

Pearl Pandya, South Asia Senior Analyst at ACLED, said: 

“South Asian countries do not want a regime collapse in Iran, nor do they want the Gulf economies to be destabilized. 

“The region relies heavily on the Gulf and Iran for oil, gas, and fertilizers, while remittances from large diaspora populations — particularly in countries like Nepal and Bangladesh — remain a critical economic lifeline. Any disruption to these flows, or a return of migrant workers to limited job markets, risks triggering serious instability. Recent unrest — from the 2022 protests in Sri Lanka to demonstrations in Bangladesh and Nepal — has already shown how quickly economic grievances can escalate.

“At the same time, sectarian tensions present a parallel risk, particularly in Pakistan, which has one of the largest Shia populations outside Iran. Attitudes toward the conflict — especially opposition to the US and Israel — often cut across sectarian lines, complicating assumptions of alignment with the Gulf. This puts governments in a difficult position, and recent warnings by Pakistan’s army chief, Asim Munir, against using the Iran war to fuel domestic unrest underscore the sensitivity of the issue.

“As a result, Pakistan — and the region more broadly — is likely to prioritize neutrality and avoid direct involvement. Islamabad has previously refused Saudi requests for military support, albeit before the formal mutual defense agreement, reflecting a consistent effort to walk a fine line between competing regional powers. That balancing act is now set to continue, as South Asian states seek to contain spillover risks while avoiding deeper entanglement.”