Risks to South Sudan’s election plan as violence surges - Comment from Kelvin Maina

“South Sudan is not simply facing a political standoff, it is sliding back into the conflict dynamics that drove earlier cycles of mass violence. 

As fighting spreads across Jonglei, Upper Nile, Unity and parts of Equatoria, civilians are being displaced at scale and alleged ethnic mobilisation is intensifying along Dinka–Nuer lines. For now, this is the main division to consider, but recent remarks by the Agwelek militia commander and assistant chief of defence forces for mobilisation and disarmament to “spare no lives" leave more uncertainty ahead.

The detention of opposition leader Riek Machar has effectively dismantled one of the core safeguards of the 2018 peace deal, signalling that political competition is no longer being managed through institutions but through force. 

These are the same warning signs that preceded previous atrocities, and in this context, rushed elections without the basic conditions for credibility risk acting as a trigger for renewed large-scale violence rather than a route to stability.”

For an interview with Kelvin Maina, contact ACLED press office [email protected]. See full report: Violent escalation in Jonglei threatens South Sudan’s peace agreement