Somalia’s election crisis amid federal-regional rifts

ACLED’s Senior Research Assistant for Southeast Africa, said:

“Rising political fragmentation and renewed clashes in southern Somalia ahead of planned elections set to take place before May 2026 raise further doubts over whether the process can proceed as scheduled.

“On 17 March 2026, the Southwest state administration suspended all cooperation with the federal government, citing ongoing interference in internal affairs and security. Southwest is the third regional administration, after Puntland and Jubaland, to cut ties with the federal government amid disputes over the electoral system. Remaining states, such as Hirshabelle and Galmudug, are likely to follow if similar pressures persist. If this happens, it would render the upcoming election unviable.

“In the days following Southwest’s decision, tensions rapidly escalated on the ground: The federal government started deploying troops in Baraawe and Buur Hakaba towns and sought to encourage defections within the Southwest state’s security forces, facing accusations that it was trying to supplant the regional administration. 

“Beyond the immediate political fallout, the fragmentation risks creating openings for al-Shabaab. The group has regained control of more than 60 towns and villages across southern Somalia over the past year, amid faltering government-led counterinsurgency operations. Continued divisions between federal and regional authorities are likely to further undermine security coordination, enabling the group to consolidate and expand its presence.”