Is South Africa’s March and March momentum back as elections approach?

On 30 September, March and March held another planned nationwide mobilization against undocumented migration, alongside demands related to gender-based violence and femicide. The mobilization was expected to build on the much larger demonstrations of 30 June, but activity was more limited and concentrated. 

Susanna Deetlefs, South Africa Analyst at ACLED, said: 

“The largest demonstration was in Durban, where hundreds marched and participants targeted immigrant-run businesses. A smaller demonstration took place in Cape Town, while the planned Tshwane demonstration was called off because of rain and low turnout. 

“The contrast with June, though, is significant. On June 30 alone, ACLED recorded nearly 100 demonstrations against illegal migration, bringing the total to at least 150 demonstrations during June — more than the total recorded anti-illegal migrant-related demonstrations over the previous 12 months combined. Although March and March later said it would hold demonstrations every Thursday, ACLED data shows that this level of activity did not continue. Demonstrations dropped sharply after June, with July recording around a third of June’s activity and August around a tenth, while September remained relatively quiet. 

“The 30 September demonstrations therefore, appear less like a continuation of June’s large-scale mobilization and more like evidence that March and March, alongside other groups opposed to illegal migration, can still organize smaller, localized demonstrations. But the latest mobilization also showed the potential for local tensions. 

“In Durban, participants reportedly threatened immigrant-run businesses and assaulted a man who was mistaken for a foreigner —and in Cape Town, participants used anti-foreigner slogans despite the small turnout. The immediate concern is therefore less a return to June’s scale and more the risk that smaller demonstrations create pressure or violence against migrant communities in specific areas.

“Looking ahead, March and March has shown that it can mobilize large numbers, particularly in KwaZulu-Natal, but its ability to sustain the nationwide scale seen on 30 June appears more limited. Following the 30 September demonstrations, the group indicated it would continue putting pressure on the government, suggesting further localized demonstrations are possible. 

“Ahead of the November 4 local elections, the key question is whether March and March can rebuild the wider geographic support seen in June or whether activity remains concentrated in a smaller number of areas.”