Syria: The collapse of the ceasefire risks putting thousands of ISIL prisoners into play — Expert comment

The Syrian government’s lightning offensives against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have dramatically reshaped the political landscape of north and northeast Syria and, in doing so, consolidated the prospect of central governance in the new Syria. At the same time, this has reawakened questions about the future of prison camps housing Islamic State-affiliated detainees, particularly as the new Syrian government has recently joined the Global Coalition against ISIS.

Fighting initially began in Aleppo on 6 January, with the Syrian government swiftly assuming full control of the SDF-controlled al-Ashrafiyya and Sheikh Maqsoud neighborhoods, before expanding into the Ar Raqqa and Deir ez Zor governorates. By 18 January, Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa had signed an agreement with the SDF to cease all hostile activities after three days of confrontation that led to the government's approximate full control of Ar Raqqa and Deir ez Zor governorates, including important resources such as the Euphrates Dam, along with gas and oil fields in these two governorates. Among other conditions, the agreement stipulated the integration of SDF fighters as individuals into government forces after vetting and the immediate administrative handover of governmental institutions in the two governorates. 

Following the collapse of the first ceasefire agreement amid further fighting, and with the rapid territorial losses of SDF forces, both sides agreed to a four-day ceasefire aimed at halting hostilities on 20 January. The ceasefire included commitments by government forces not to enter major urban centers such as Hasakeh and Qamishli during the truce. On 21 January, the government took control of al-Hol camp, which contains around 45,000 people, including ISIL fighters and their families. These developments marked a decisive transition in the reconfiguration of authority in northeastern Syria, signaling a transition from open confrontation toward negotiated consolidation under Damascus’ control, albeit amid persistent fragility and uncertainty.

Muaz Al Abdullah, Middle East Research Manager at ACLED, said:

“The ceasefire agreement announced on Sunday was less a ‘truce’ and more a capitulation of the SDF project of semi-autonomy. With the collapse of the ceasefire agreement amid armed clashes between the two sides in several locations, including the countryside of Raqqa and al-Hasakeh, the confrontation might extend to areas that include prisons of ISIL fighters in al-Hasakeh province.

“ISIL prisoners remain the top priority in the current situation. Until now, three of the main prisons (Ghoweran, Himo, and Roj) are located in al-Hasakeh governorate under shared control of the SDF and the Global Coalition. With the last batch of Iraqi ISIL members transferred from al-Hole camp toward Iraq two weeks ago, the camp now contains only Syrian ISIL fighters. However, the recurrence of security breakdowns in the vicinity of prisons holding ISIL fighters carries serious ramifications and consequences for the security of Syria and the region as a whole — particularly given that some of these facilities contain nearly 5,000 ISIL fighters as in Ghoweran prisons, which pose a significant threat amid the current security vacuum in northeastern Syria.”

ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data) is a global monitor that collects, analyzes, and maps data on conflict and protest. ACLED provides detailed information to help identify, understand, and track patterns and trends in conflict and crisis situations around the world.

Correction: An earlier version of the timeline visual indicated dates in 2025. The year has been corrected to 2026.