Is the Taliban losing control of northern Afghanistan?

On 11 August, armed clashes broke out between Taliban special forces and armed residents loyal to the Tajik Taliban commander, Juma Khan Fateh, in Afghanistan’s Badakhshan province. Following nearly a week of the clashes, Fateh surrendered to Taliban forces on 17 August.

Indrajit Sharma, South Asia Research Manager at ACLED, said: 

“The recent fighting in Badakhshan has exposed a significant challenge to the Taliban’s authority. Juma Khan Fateh was able to mobilize supporters and resist the Taliban for days, showing that powerful local commanders can still challenge the leadership’s attempts to impose control. In a strategically important and ethnically diverse border province, the standoff points to deeper tensions within the Taliban over who holds power and how far the leadership’s authority really extends.

“The clashes were caused by the attempt of the Taliban forces to transfer military equipment and vehicles belonging to Fateh away from areas under his control. But there had already been underlying tensions since May, when the Taliban suspended gold mining activities in parts of the province in an effort to disarm fighters loyal to Fateh. 

“This decision should be understood as part of an effort to disarm fighters loyal to Fateh. In the mineral-rich Badakhshan province, gold mining has long been a source of conflict and a terrain in which Taliban rule can be questioned. Even before the latest outbreak of violence, ACLED records at least eight armed clashes between local commanders and Taliban forces over the control of gold mines in the province since the Taliban came into power. The decision to ban mining serves as a direct blow to the source of revenue and influence of Fateh, whose network had established control over mining activity in certain parts of the province, particularly in the northern Darwaz region, which sits right on the border with Tajikistan. 

“While Fateh’s surrender reduces the immediate risk of further clashes in the province, the Taliban’s efforts to consolidate control over powerful local commanders and limit their influence are likely to provoke resentment and increase the potential of further infighting.”