Tanker for tanker: Why are US attacks in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz escalating?

Valentin d'Hauthuille, Middle East Analyst at ACLED, said:

“Over the past week, US forces struck more tankers in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz than in the previous four months combined. 

Since 1 September, US forces attacked 10 tankers. That compares with 12 vessels attacked sporadically over the previous four months, beginning in the Gulf of Oman on 19 April: nine tankers, two container ships, and one cargo ship.

“The latest attacks were sparked by a new “tanker for tanker” policy devised by the Trump administration, which is purportedly aimed at deterring Iranian attacks on tankers. The US strikes on the Sinopa and Hawk Iranian tankers on 1 September were a response to Iranian strikes on two tankers off the coast of Oman earlier that day. 

“While the long-term effects of the “tanker for tanker” policy remain to be seen, it has so far led to a new cycle of escalation in the contested waterways. Iranian forces have carried out several attacks against US Navy ships over the past week, leading the US to retaliate in a more than ‘a ship for a ship’ manner, disabling three tankers on 5 September and five others on 9 September. 

“Iranian forces have also increased their attacks against commercial shipping and US interests in the region. The latest escalation is taking place as Iranian officials are sending mixed signals, noting that a Strait of Hormuz deal with Oman is only days away on one hand, while claiming that they will establish a restricted maritime zone on the other, though the two are not necessarily incompatible."

“Maritime routes will therefore continue to play a key role in the conflict, with impacts extending far beyond the region as oil prices push towards $100 a barrel.

"This measured escalatory cycle of attacks between the US and Iran in the Persian Gulf is unlikely to end soon as both sides refuse to compromise on their essential demands in any potential deal to end the war. The coming weeks will tell if the cycle continues or if we see a return to pre-April levels of daily violence between the two sides."