Tiziano Breda on Colombia’s legislative elections

ACLED’s Latin America Senior Analyst, Tiziano Breda, comments:

“Colombia reached these legislative elections in a context marked by polarization, uncertainty, and persistent violence. In the month preceding the vote, ACLED recorded over twenty attacks or kidnappings targeting candidates, political representatives, and local social leaders, alongside a few clashes between armed groups and military units deployed to secure the instalment of polling stations, despite ceasefires declared by some armed actors to allow the elections to proceed.”

“Against this backdrop, the main political beneficiary was Gustavo Petro. His coalition, the Pacto Histórico, secured more than four million votes, emerging as the largest force in the Senate and one of the main blocs in the Chamber of Representatives, strengthening the position of Iván Cepeda — considered the architect of Petro's Total Peace strategy to deal with armed groups — ahead of the presidential election scheduled for May.”

“However, it was not a full-fledged victory, as right-wing forces linked to former President Álvaro Uribe also performed well. This makes a first-round presidential victory less likely for Cepeda, who could lose to the right in a runoff, particularly if the latter manage to overcome internal differences and attract the moderate vote. In any case, the next president, regardless of their political color, will govern without a stable congressional majority, thus facing great challenges to push through a reform agenda.”