Tomas Buenaventura on Philippines drug war legacy ahead of ICC hearing

ACLED Philippines Senior Research Assistant Tomas Buenaventura said:

“On 23 February 2026, former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte will face the International Criminal Court (ICC) for the confirmation of charges hearing over his controversial war on drugs. The hearing, postponed from October 2025, comes just days after Duterte’s daughter, Vice President Sara Duterte, formally announced her 2028 presidential run on 18 February, in a speech highly critical of her previous ally, current President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr.

“The ICC hearing is once again shining the spotlight on the Duterte-era bloodbath. The timing of the announcement of Sara Duterte’s presidential run, which also comes ahead of new moves to impeach her, suggests that the Duterte camp is banking on continued popular support and resentment against Marcos to parlay Rodrigo Duterte’s arrest into a path to vindication.

“Sara Duterte, who commands an overwhelming lead in early opinion polls, has been a dogged defender of her father’s legacy, making repeated visits to The Hague since his arrest on 11 March 2025. She will thus continue to face opposition over her family’s connection to the war on drugs — especially given the fact that the war on drugs violence has never actually ended.

“The actual conduct of the war on drugs has proven sensitive to political developments, including the ICC investigation itself, ACLED previously found. Still, ACLED data show that two important centers of Duterte influence — their home region of Davao, as well as the Central Visayas region around Cebu, which were both dominated by Duterte-aligned candidates in the 2025 midterm elections — now hold the distinction of being major holdouts in the war on drugs during the Marcos presidency. Central Visayas now leads in violent anti-drug vigilante activity, as well as in overall drug war violence, while Davao Region leads in police drug-related violence against civilians.”

“The volume of police drug-related violence in Davao partly owes to the war on drugs launched by current Davao City Mayor Sebastian Duterte — Rodrigo’s son — in 2024, amid a then-escalating rift with President Marcos.

“Nevertheless, overall drug war violence has continued elsewhere under Marcos’s watch, amid the absence of any significant break in policy from the Duterte years. Marcos never officially terminated the last iteration of the Duterte-era war on drugs, officially called Oplan Double Barrel Finale: Anti-Illegal Drugs Operation through Reinforcement and Education (ADORE), which was launched in Duterte’s last few months in office. Under Marcos, at least 540 civilians have been killed in war on drugs-related violence from 30 June 2022 to 13 February 2026.

“In total, ACLED records at least 7,980 civilian deaths in President Duterte’s war on drugs between 30 June 2016 to 29 June 2022, the period spanning his term.”

For further information, contact the ACLED press office, [email protected]. See the full report: Between an ICC trial and the 2028 polls, the Dutertes’ shifting fortunes are shaping the Philippine war on drugs

ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data) is a global monitor that collects, analyzes, and maps data on conflict and protest. ACLED provides detailed information to help identify, understand, and track patterns and trends in conflict and crisis situations around the world.