From Total Peace to ‘prison or death’: De la Espriella’s offensive in Colombia

Between 27 and 31 August, the Colombian government of Abelardo de la Espriella carried out airstrikes against two different dissident factions of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), killing at least 31 fighters, extradited the leader of another, ended formal talks with three armed groups, and labelled all non-state armed groups active in the country as terrorists. 

Tiziano Breda, Latin America Senior Analyst at ACLED, said:

“In just three weeks, President De la Espriella completely buried all the remains of his predecessor Gustavo Petro’s Total Peace policy. In its stead, he has set the stage for an all-out war against armed groups, offering only two options to members of armed groups: prison or death.

“The most immediate consequence of this strategy has been a spike in the lethality of security forces’ operations. Since he took office on 7 August, ACLED records at least 84 deaths in clashes between security forces and armed groups, turning August 2026 into the deadliest month for these clashes since ACLED started coverage of the country in 2018.

“Armed groups’ reaction to the new government’s security approach was not long in coming, and has been centered on the new technology these actors have been developing over the past two years to maximize the impact of their attacks and minimize the human costs: weaponized drones. ACLED records 30 drone attacks against security forces in the first three weeks of De la Espriella’s government, more than quadruple those recorded in the previous three weeks, highly concentrated in the Cauca and Norte de Santander departments.

“De la Espriella’s offensive against armed groups is likely to reshape Colombia’s conflict landscape. If Petro’s eagerness to negotiate lasting agreements with armed groups had the unintended consequence of fueling conflict between armed groups for the control of illicit economies, the military pressure may not coalesce armed groups against a common enemy, but at least temporarily de-escalate the violent competition between them. As an illustration, clashes between armed groups are down by roughly one-third in the first three weeks of De la Espriella, compared to the same period prior, with significant decreases in Norte de Santander and Antioquia.

“In the medium run, however, the government-dealt blows to armed groups may result in pyrrhic victories, as it is unlikely to either kill or capture the over 27,000 men in arms that are present in the country, while distrust towards institutions and thriving illicit economies such as illegal gold mining and drug trafficking will keep attracting new recruits. 

“The risk will rather be that by using casualties as a metric of achievements, the government may create a permissive environment for state forces to carry out abuses, particularly in those places where illegal armed groups have managed to blend with local communities, exposing a growing number of civilians to stigma and state-sponsored violence.”