Venezuela and the U.S - Comment from Clionadh Raleigh

Prof. Clionadh Raleigh, CEO of ACLED (Armed Conflict Location and Event Data) says:

“What we’ve seen over the last 24 hours is really quite extraordinary, not just in its speed, but in how theatrical the operation felt. It’s hard to view this as primarily about narco-terrorism. 
If that were truly the only priority, Venezuela wouldn’t be first in line. Colombia would be.

This looks far more like a push for regime change and an attempt to reassert U.S. influence in its near region, and Venezuela isn’t just any state, it sits on enormous oil reserves. 

The challenge now is that while Maduro has been removed, much of the inner circle controlling the military, security forces, ports, and the oil sector is still in place, and the opposition doesn’t yet have the infrastructure to govern. 

That combination almost guarantees a messy and potentially violent struggle for power. And, while the old regime caused huge hardship for Venezuelans, a rapid unravelling of the state could make life even harder in the short term. 

There are also  spillover risks for neighbours like Colombia and Cuba, and geopolitical repercussions for Venezuela’s powerful backers in Russia and China.”