Venezuela and the U.S - Comment from Tiziano Breda

Tiziano Breda, Senior Analyst for Latin America at ACLED (Armed Conflict Location and Event Data) said:

“The U.S. military operation in Venezuela appears to have been the largest intervention in Latin America since Panama in 1989, with activity concentrated in Caracas and several surrounding states, though the full scale and casualty figures remain unclear. 

Venezuela had recently seen declining levels of recorded violence, largely due to economic collapse and mass migration, reducing some criminal activity, but the operation introduces major uncertainty around the country’s political and security trajectory. 

The response of key power brokers, particularly Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello, who oversees informal pro-government groups such as colectivos, and Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino, who commands the formal military, will be critical in shaping any transition scenario. 

While direct military confrontation is unlikely, fragmented armed resistance or guerrilla-style dynamics cannot be ruled out, especially if a post-Maduro government is perceived as U.S.-aligned. 

Beyond Venezuela, this kind of operation could also weaken how the U.S. is perceived when it speaks about sovereignty and non-intervention. It may even encourage other major powers to act more assertively in their own spheres of influence, adding another layer of uncertainty to an already tense global landscape.”

Correction: An earlier version of this comment incorrectly listed Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello's name as 'Diego'.