What do the election results in Pakistani-administered Kashmir mean for violence in the region?

Pearl Pandya, Asia-Pacific Senior Analyst at ACLED, said:

“The first phase of elections in Pakistani-administered Kashmir has only reinforced concerns over security and legitimacy. Voting was accompanied by further deadly violence, allegations of rigging and an ongoing boycott campaign by the Jammu Kashmir Joint Awami Action Committee (JAAC).

“Preliminary results showing the dominance of national parties were inevitable, and will bolster the JAAC’s campaign against what it sees as outside influence over the region’s politics. At the heart of the dispute lies its opposition to the reservation of 12 seats, comprising nearly a quarter of the regional assembly, for refugees from Indian-administered Kashmir currently residing elsewhere in Pakistan. The JAAC argues that this provision undermines regional autonomy by allowing national parties to influence the makeup of the local government. For its part, the government sees the arrangement as constitutionally mandated to maintain its claim over the undivided Kashmir region.

“The JAAC clearly enjoys support on the ground: ACLED records at least 56 protests led by JAAC across the region since June 2026, defying a government crackdown and far exceeding the weekly average for the region. This mobilization has come with significant violence – several demonstrations have descended into deadly clashes with security forces, and during at least six protests, security forces deployed lethal violence against peaceful protesters. This quick recourse to force reflects Pakistan’s interest in maintaining an iron grip over the territory:  ACLED data since 2018 show that security forces are more likely to resort to lethal force against peaceful protesters in Pakistani-administered Kashmir than in any other province in the country.

“The violence surrounding the first phase of voting will do little to quell political disenchantment. At a time when Pakistan is grappling with insecurity in its western border provinces, it will be keen to avoid escalating unrest in this sensitive border region. But a continued heavy-handed response from the government is only likely to boost sympathy for the JAAC and reinforce its argument that regional autonomy is being eroded.  Despite two phases of voting still to come, the violence that marred the first round is bound to overshadow the legitimacy of the entire electoral exercise.”