What do the latest military airstrikes tell us about the situation in the conflict-torn Rakhine state?

On 28 September, Myanmar military airstrikes hit the "India Market” and Kissapanadi Bridge in Kyauktaw township, killing at least 50 people and injuring 57 others, including shoppers, passersby, and cargo laborers, with the death toll continuing to rise. 

Jesua Lynn, ACLED’s Myanmar Analyst, said:

“Military airstrikes against civilians and infrastructure have been systematic since 2021, routinely escalating when the junta suffers battlefield losses.

“Local markets are increasingly targeted alongside schools and hospitals. Since the first airstrike targeting Moe Dar Gyi village market of Katha township in January 2022, ACLED records 41 such events, causing at least 145 civilian fatalities. 

“Rakhine state is the hardest-hit region in terms of airstrike casualties from targeting local markets, with at least 11 events and 49 reported fatalities prior to the Kyauktaw attack.

“Launched on 4 September 2026, the military’s Operation 4926 aims to reclaim territory from the Arakan Army (AA) through combined air, artillery, and ground offensives. By expanding strikes into urban centers like Mrauk-U, Rathedaung, and Kyauktaw townships, the military seeks to disrupt the AA’s governance and administrative capacity across Rakhine.

“Despite the intensity of the operations, the military has incurred battlefield losses without, to date, regaining significant territory. The expansion of attacks into areas away from active fighting suggests a broader strategy of exerting pressure on the AA by disrupting the civilian environment and the administrative systems through which it governs.

“With the AA vowing retaliation and the post-monsoon season favoring the junta’s air and drone operations, further confrontation is highly likely in coming months, heightening civilian risk without yielding decisive territorial shifts.”