What does Israel’s killing of key Hamas chief mean for Gaza?

Nasser Khdour, Middle East Assistant Research Manager at ACLED, said: 

"Mohammad Odeh is the second Hamas military chief of staff Israel confirmed killing in May. His killing attempt came 10 days after the assassination of Izz al-Din al-Haddad earlier this month. Since the ceasefire took effect last October, ACLED data shows that Israel has carried out over 140 deadly drone and airstrikes against Hamas targets and affiliated forces in Gaza, including attacks that killed senior commanders.

"The killing of military chiefs such as Odeh and Haddad points to Israel’s operational ability to reach Hamas’ military leadership. The timing also suggests Israel’s effort to weaken Hamas’ control in Gaza and raise the cost of refusing disarmament. But this does not mean Hamas is close to changing its position. Despite its losses, Hamas’ military wing has remained resilient. The group can still replace killed commanders, even if their replacements are less experienced.

"The killing of senior commanders is unlikely, on its own, to push Hamas toward disarmament or make it accept the complete removal of its role in Gaza’s security and governance. Hamas’ decisions are shaped by wider calculations, especially the group’s survival, internal cohesion, leverage inside Gaza, and whether any agreement would actually force Israel to stop its attacks. At the same time, Israel-backed armed groups have become a major concern for Hamas.

"Without clear guarantees over who will govern Gaza, how security will be managed, and whether Israel will fully respect a ceasefire, the killing of Hamas’ leadership will not lead to a major policy change."

For an interview with Nasser Khdour, contact the ACLED press office at [email protected] 

Stay up to date with the latest developments on Gaza through ACLED’s Gaza Conflict Monitor.