What does the latest migration surge mean for Spain?

Following the Spanish Supreme Court's ruling that migrants arriving in Spain by sea cannot be immediately returned to Morocco, more than 50,000 migrants crossed into the Spanish exclave of Ceuta near the city of Fnideq between 30 and 31 July. 

Joel Crisetig, Research Manager for Western Europe, said: 

“While the Mayor-President of Ceuta urged the Spanish government to call a state of national emergency, the army was deployed to contain the inflow of migrants. Early reports say 34 people drowned while attempting the crossing. 

“The latest developments, while unprecedented in their scale, are reminiscent of May 2021, when Moroccan border guards allowed the passage of more than 10,000 migrants to Spain within two days to protest Madrid’s perceived support for the independence of Western Sahara. Following Spain’s recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the contested province in 2022 and a bilateral agreement on migration in 2023, the number of crossings to Spain decreased significantly, highlighting the rapprochement between both countries. 

“This was also reflected in political violence trends on the ground: while ACLED records 27 clashes between migrants and security forces - both Spanish and Moroccan - in 2021, only 15 of such events were recorded between 2024 and 2026 in total, with only three events taking place in 2026 (including the latest incidents). Conversely, the intensifying crackdown on migrants was reflected in a growing number of arrests. 

“The latest crisis comes after the Spanish Supreme Court ruled that migrants reaching Spain by sea could not be immediately deported back to Morocco, with authorities accusing human traffickers of taking advantage of this decision to “undermine Spain’s territorial integrity”. Nonetheless, officials quoted by El Pais suspected that Moroccan authorities deliberately permitted the crossings, pointing at Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’ recent visit to Algeria, where he pledged to strengthen bilateral cooperation with Morocco’s regional rival. 

“While anti-immigration protest activity in Spain remains low compared to other countries such as the United Kingdom or Italy, the latest crisis has led to strong condemnation of Sanchez’ perceived leniency towards illegal migration by right-wing parties and parts of the public, hinting at a potential increase in anti-migration unrest in the near future. Furthermore, European state’s calls for tighter border controls could result in an even harder repression of migration flows, raising concerns about the respect of migrants’ human rights.”