What does the latest UN report reveal about Africa’s jihadist threat?

ACLED’s Southeast Africa Senior Analyst, Peter Bofin, said:

“The latest UN Security Council report on Islamic State (IS) and al-Qaeda again spotlights the threat their African affiliates present. While the nature of the threat in different theaters depends on financing and battlefield capability, modestly financed groups still present real threats to domestic and international interests.

“The Sahel remains the epicenter of Islamist armed groups, with ACLED reporting over 12,000 fatalities involving these groups in the past 18 months. JNIM’s threat to state control in Mali and Burkina Faso is underpinned by local taxation and extortion. A $50 million ransom received last year has further boosted its finances, supporting increasingly sophisticated capabilities, including battlefield drones and satellite communications used to coordinate complex operations. 

In East Africa, al-Shabaab remains one of the continent’s deadliest groups, with ACLED recording more than 10,000 reported deaths in al-Shabaab-related violence over the past 18 months. Despite some degradation of its extortion in Mogadishu, its revenue streams stretch across the country, and the region. ”

“IS affiliates in East Africa are considerably smaller than the Sahel. The UN report notes an increase in numbers for Islamic State Mozambique (ISM), though at an estimated 400–500 it remains the smallest such group in operation.

“ISM extorts small-scale mining operations and kidnaps civilians for finance. This limited source of income is reflected in the groups’ current use of battlefield technology: ACLED records just one drone attack by the Islamic State Central Africa Province (ISCAP), also known as the Allied Democratic Forces, and none by ISM. Both groups use surveillance drones, although it is a matter of time before they deploy them for attack.

“ISCAP’s own financing could also grow as it expands its area of operations towards Haut-Uélé, a gold-rich area beyond its established extortion and trade networks in Ituri and North Kivu provinces. In the short term, it may also hinder the public health response to the ongoing Ebola outbreak there.

“Across the continent, addressing local financing mechanisms will be critical to addressing the risks these groups present to humanitarian, commercial, and state interests.”