What does the return of Juan Orlando Hernández mean for Honduras?

On Sunday 26 July, Juan Orlando Hernández, the former president of Honduras, will be returning to Honduras. Hernández, who was extradited to and convicted in the United States on drug trafficking and weapons charges, received a presidential pardon from US president Donald Trump in December. Released from prison in the US, he returns to Honduras where he faces trial for money laundering and fraud. 

Tiziano Breda, Latin America and the Caribbean Senior Analyst at ACLED, said: 

“Hernández’s case will pose an important test for the country’s judicial independence. Hernández returns to Honduras with the leverage of not only a former president and former head of the ruling National Party, but also with the political blessing of US President Donald Trump. He is likely to use this to pressure the judiciary into dropping charges against him. Should judicial authorities give in to this pressure, they would set a dangerous precedent for a country in which levels of impunity for serious crimes are already very high. 

“Hernández’s return will also impact the country’s political and social stability. He will certainly try to take advantage of his renewed proximity to power to revamp his political influence, and has not ruled out running again for president in the future. On one hand, his comeback could prompt tensions with those in and outside the government who played a role in his capture and extradition. On the other, it may sway the government of President Nasry Asfura into doubling down on repressive measures to not only combat organized crime but also repress dissent and social movements. During his second term (2018-2022), ACLED records over 30 events of civilian targeting by security forces, many in the context of protests and against communities claiming ownership over contested lands. Asfura’s government has already passed legislation that punishes land usurpation, which Indigenous and farmers’ movements fear to be a justification for authorities’ evictions from lands they claim to own, as illustrated by a recent operation against Garífuna communities in San Juan, Atlántida. Hernández’s return to politics will do nothing to reverse this trend, and may instead further exacerbate these land disputes, particularly around economic projects brought forward by his government, the so-called Zones for Employment and Economic Development.”