What does Russia’s maritime activity around Japan in September tell us?

ACLED data indicates that Russian maritime activity around Japan in September was geographically dispersed, with vessel movements recorded across the Sea of Japan, Sea of Okhotsk, East China Sea, and Philippine Sea. Russian vessels were also observed transiting several strategically important maritime passages, including the La Perouse (Soya), Tsushima, Tsugaru, and Miyako Straits.

Laura Sorica, Asia-Pacific Analyst at ACLED, said:

“Russian naval forces continue to demonstrate the ability to move through maritime corridors surrounding Japan between the Sea of Japan, East China Sea, Pacific, and Sea of Okhotsk. September’s activity is notable for the range of geographic areas involved, with Russian vessels operating across Japan’s northern, southern, eastern, and western sides.

“Russia is also continuing airborne intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance presence around Japan, with repeated flights of Russian IL-20 intelligence-gathering aircraft, recorded in September.

“The maritime and surveillance activity comes against a backdrop of heightened tensions between Russia and Japan. On 13 August, President Vladimir Putin visited Iturup/Etorofu, one of the four islands that Japan refers to as the Northern Territories. Tokyo protested the visit, reiterating its position that the islands are Japanese territory. Russia subsequently conducted military exercises around the disputed islands.

“Tensions also intersected with Japan’s growing defense cooperation with the United States and Australia. Russia objected to Orient Shield, a joint military exercise involving Japan, the United States, and Australia, held from 8 to 24 September in areas near Russia’s Far Eastern borders.

“Russia has also continued to criticize Japan’s evolving security and defense policy at the diplomatic level. On 26 September, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said at the UN General Assembly that Russia opposed permanent UN Security Council seats for Germany and Japan, describing both countries as being on ‘the path to militarism and revanchism.’

“Looking ahead, the key issue will be whether Russia’s geographically dispersed activity in September represents a temporary concentration of deployments or develops into a sustained pattern, given the recent tensions between Moscow and Tokyo.”