What is driving the recent surge in Israeli strikes on Gaza?

Nasser Khdour, Middle East Assistant Research Manager at ACLED, said: 

“Israeli air- and drone strikes against Hamas and other militant targets in the Gaza Strip have been increasing since May as part of Israel’s growing military pressure on Hamas. ACLED records more than 40 such attacks in June, the highest monthly total since the ceasefire began in October 2025. The share of Israeli air- and drone strikes that struck militants rose from nearly 36% in June to around 40% in the first 10 days of July, indicating an increased focus on individual militant targets. Meanwhile, other air- and drone strikes continued to hit people in locations near the Yellow Line, killing and injuring civilians, including women and children.

“The surge in violence has been partly driven by the de-escalation of the conflict in Lebanon, which has given Israel more room to shift its military focus back to Gaza. And ahead of national elections in October 2026 — with polls showing the opposition in the lead — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing growing domestic pressure to take a tougher security position against Hamas.

“Anticipating this dangerous pre-election window, Hamas dissolved its Gaza government to transfer control to the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, in hope that this administrative shift would prompt mediators and the Board of Peace to block a major Israeli offensive.

“With military operations in Lebanon declining and no direct exchange of fire between Iran and Israel, Israeli strikes targeting militants and groups in Gaza are likely to increase further ahead of the elections. The likelihood of any major Israeli ground operation or large-scale air campaign will largely depend on how strongly the US pressures Israel to avoid further escalation in Gaza.”