What happens now that the government has regained control of Mekele?

ACLED's Ethiopia Analyst, Dr. Jalale Getachew Birru, said:

 "Many reports indicate that the government and allied forces have begun to control  Tigray’s capital, Mekele. ACLED data indicate that following the initial phase of the northern Ethiopia conflict in 2020 — triggered by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) attacking the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) North Command on 3 November 2020 — the government retook Mekele within less than a month, by 28 November 2020. It then formed a transitional government, with the ENDF serving as the primary security force.

"However, the TPLF quickly mobilized youth, regional security forces, and former members of the Tigrayan ENDF to establish the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) by the beginning of 2022. Rather than fighting for territorial control, the TDF launched roving hit-and-run attacks on provisional administrators and convoys. This posed a challenge for the ENDF, which was not well-trained in urban insurgency warfare. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed admitted that the government is involved in a “difficult and tiresome” insurgency led by TPLF. This has drastically complicated efforts to maintain basic services and to provide a functioning government. Thus, on 28 June 2021, the ENDF withdrew from Tigray, announcing a unilateral ceasefire as TPLF forces swept forward to seize Mekele.

"This time around, as the government controls Mekele, there is a high probability that the federal government will leave the regional administration to the Tigray Council for Peace and Change and the security to the Tigray Peace Force, which comprises former members of TDF and is currently allied with government forces and fighting against the TDF.

"The Tigray Council for Peace and Change was established on 17 May 2026 in Addis Ababa. The main objective of the council is to create an enabling, peaceful environment through an organized approach to remove the TPLF faction and, once removed, to bring sustainable peace and security to the region. The founding assembly of the council was attended by key TPLF negotiators of the Pretoria peace agreement, including General Tsadkan Gebretensae and Getachew Reda, alongside General Goesh Gebre, General Gebregiorgis Abate (Wedi Abate), and General Kebede Fikadu. Seven political parties based in Tigray (including Baytona, Arena Tigray, Tinsae 70 Enderta, and Simret), former regional leaders, former military commanders, veterans, and various associations attended the founding session.

"This, combined with possible conflict fatigue among TDF members and Tigrayans, could enable local elites and security forces to manage the regional crisis, reducing the likelihood of a recurrence of the situation from November 2020 to July 2021."