What is at stake in Peru’s upcoming elections?

On 7 June, Peruvians will elect their next president. The runoff will pit Keiko Fujimori, a hardline conservative and daughter of former jailed autocrat Alberto Fujimori, running for president for the fourth time, against left-wing Roberto Sánchez. The stakes for the country’s political stability are high. Peru has had eight presidents since 2016 and has repeatedly struggled to form a stable governing coalition.

Tiziano Breda, Latin America & the Caribbean Senior Analyst at ACLED, said: 

“The runoff between the two voters will be close. Fujimori embodies a far-right security approach that might not be popular with moderate voters. Sánchez, meanwhile, embodies another contentious strand of Peruvian politics. For many voters, he evokes former President Pedro Castillo, who ran against Fujimori in 2021 and won amid hopes that he would transform Peru’s political system. But Castillo mismanaged his government and later attempted a self-coup, leading to his detention. Sánchez served as Castillo’s Trade and Tourism Minister, a connection that could hurt his chances with undecided voters. 

“Security will be a defining feature in these elections. Over the past four years, Peru has lost its reputation as a relatively safe country. The expansion of transnational criminal groups, including Tren de Aragua and Ecuadorian gangs, as well as the rise of illegal gold mining in the Peruvian Amazon, has contributed to higher levels of criminal activity and political violence. As a result, since 2024, ACLED has recorded more than 400 protests against growing extortion and insecurity, many of them led by the public transport sector. While Sánchez has proposed purging the police and strengthening the authorities’ investigative capacity, Fujimori and other right-wing candidates have emphasized the need to involve the military in public security.

“The tough-on-crime approach reflects a regional trend across Latin America and aligns closely with the Trump administration’s objectives. ACLED data suggest that such policies have limited impact in reducing crime, as criminal groups often adapt by shifting revenue models and trafficking routes in response to hardline security measures. But for segments of the population directly affected by violent crime, these policies may prove appealing and could push voters toward Fujimori.

“Regardless of the election results, Peru’s next president will have to govern alongside a fragmented Congress. This challenge is made even more complex by the country’s return to a bicameral system for the first time in 30 years. This means that no candidate is likely to secure a clear majority in either chamber. On the one hand, this system could make it more difficult to depose a president, potentially reducing the political instability that has characterized Peru over the past decade. On the other, it will limit the president’s ability to pass reforms without negotiating with a range of political forces, creating further delays and fragmentation throughout the process.”