Expert Comment
What will the US-Iran deal really change?
Last week’s memorandum may have reopened diplomacy for Iran and the US, but with the Strait closed again over the weekend, and reports of 'encouraging progress' today - the question is who still holds the cards?
Prof. Clionadh Raleigh, ACLED CEO and Founder says:
“This deal looks much less like a settlement than a financial and strategic reprieve for Iran. What Tehran gets out of it is not just a pause in the fighting, but time, money, and room to rebuild: to rebuild command networks, replenish missiles and drones, restore air defences, and tighten repression at home. It is that a deal sold as de-escalation leaves Iran financially stronger, the Gulf more exposed, and Lebanon still sitting on one of the conflict’s most dangerous front lines.
"This weekend, Iran has already shown that it can still use the Strait of Hormuz to hold Gulf states and global energy markets hostage. It also leaves unresolved the question of Hezbollah and southern Lebanon, which remains one of the clearest pathways back into regional escalation.”
For an interview with Clionadh Raleigh, contact the ACLED press office at [email protected].
