Where is Sudan’s frontline moving next?

While observers braced for an imminent escalation in El Obeid — expecting the massive Rapid Support Forces (RSF) deployment and sustained drone campaign to culminate in a ground offensive — a new front instead erupted in North and West Darfur.

Ali Mahmoud Ali, ACLED’s Sudan Researcher, said:

“ACLED records 63 fatalities across Tina, Karnoi, and Um Baru localities in North Darfur since June 2026. The RSF attacked roughly 10 Zaghawa villages and towns along the western border with Chad, several of which were burned, triggering mass civilian displacement. The offensive subsequently expanded to the Um Baru locality, which RSF forces attacked and seized. It also led the Darfur Joint Forces — backed by the  Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) — to advance from Tina and seize control of multiple villages across North and West Darfur, compelling the RSF to redirect troops originally allocated for the El Obeid offensive toward the Darfur front.

 “Meanwhile, in El Obeid, RSF drone strikes on the city have sharply declined — falling to just two airstrikes reaching their targets, on 1 and 12 July, while three additional RSF drones were intercepted, down from 18 in June — marking a deliberate tactical shift. Rather than sustaining a concentrated drone campaign designed to erode the SAF's air defenses and heavy troop concentrations around El Obeid, the RSF has redirected its forces toward West Darfur to repel the  SAF and its allied Darfur Joint Forces."

“This decline in drone activity is attributable to the SAF’s strengthened defenses: Air defense and jamming systems have been reinforced by a new counter-drone tactic involving the deployment of SAF drones to intercept RSF drones. This has resulted in the downing of multiple RSF long-range “strategic” drones, including the CH-95, FH-95, and Turkish-operated Akinci. The mounting loss of these high-value assets has sharply raised the cost of continued operations in El Obeid, prompting the RSF to redirect its drone campaign toward cities such as al-Dabbah in Northern State — diverting resources away from its central objective of degrading the SAF's position in El Obeid.

“Yet the prevailing focus on El Obeid risks obscuring where the deeper emergency truly lies. The far graver danger lies in the communities surrounding El Obeid, which have been placed in direct and escalating peril by the RSF's deployment around the city.

“The current trajectory suggests that both parties are settling into a protracted war of attrition, rather than pursuing decisive territorial control across the deserts of North Darfur and around El Obeid. Within this grinding stalemate, civilians bear the burden of multifaceted risk, as they’re exposed to the violence of advancing and retreating troops on the ground and from the ever-present threat of drone strikes from above.”