Why are al-Shabaab attacks rising in north eastern Kenya?

Al-Shabaab militants recently ambushed security officers, mainly police officers from the Special Operations Group and police reservists, while on patrol at the Wantey Dam area of El Ramu, in Kutulo ward, Mandera county. At least five security officers (four police officers and one reservist) were killed, while several others sustained injuries, during the 28 July event. Later, an explosive planted by the militants targeting a reinforcement team also exploded, leading to the destruction of a police vehicle, with no casualties. 

ACLED’s Kenya and Somalia Researchers said: 

“The Wantey event speaks to the broader surge in al-Shabaab attacks in North Eastern counties and by extension Lamu county, in June and July. From remote explosions to armed clashes, ACLED records at least 25 political violence events, including two defused explosives, involving al-Shabaab in Mandera, Garissa, Wajir, and Lamu counties, amidst the ongoing multi-agency security operation against the militants. .

“The surge could partly be attributed to the events just across the border in Jubaland state of Somalia. Al-Shabaab uses remote strongholds in Lower Juba, such as the Lag-Badanna area in Badhaadhe district, as safe havens to assemble fighters, store heavy weaponry, and plan their operations. From these bases, fighter units move through border towns like Kolbiyow and easily slip into the dense cover of Kenya's Boni Forest, which acts as a natural hideout, giving the militants a secure launching pad to plant roadside explosives and raid Kenyan security posts. 

“In this regard, the surge in Kenya can be attributed to the heightened security operations inside Somalia, pushing more al-Shabaab fighters into the Kenyan side. ACLED records at least 50 offensives in June and July, mainly armed clashes and shelling or artillery missile attacks by Jubaland security forces and Danab forces in Afmadow district, which have squeezed al-Shabaab out of its usual territory in recent months. To avoid being wiped out, commanders, including foreign fighters, are escaping toward the porous Kenyan border, turning the region into a secondary battleground.”