Why do Russian strikes on Kyiv become harder to intercept?

Olha Polishchuk, ACLED’s Eastern Europe Research Manager, said: 

“More than 1,600 days into Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Sunday night’s attack was very likely the largest ballistic missile barrage on Kyiv since the beginning of the war.

“Russia reportedly launched 41 missiles and 125 drones across Ukraine, including 25 ballistic missiles and 10 Zircon hypersonic missiles, with most projectiles targeting Kyiv city. Ukrainian forces intercepted 108 drones and 18 missiles, meaning a number of ballistic missiles were still able to penetrate Ukraine’s air defences. Explosions lasted for five hours in Kyiv, leading to fires and damage to civilian infrastructure across the city. At least one person was killed, 20 were wounded.

“As a capital city housing the central government, Kyiv is well protected by air defence. Ukraine has mastered drone interception and successfully intercepts almost all cruise missiles. Russia therefore requires a very large number of drones and cruise missiles to overwhelm air defences for an attack to land. The situation is different, however, when it comes to ballistic and Zircon missiles, which are shot down with Patriot interceptor missiles that Ukraine currently lacks.

“While Sunday’s attack has not been the deadliest or the biggest in terms of the total number of missiles and drones used, it signifies Russia’s increased reliance on ballistic and Zircon missiles to exploit Ukraine’s shortage of Patriot missiles. The trend is not new: on 2 July 2026, Russia launched 76 missiles and nearly 500 drones, killing 31 civilians in Kyiv alone. Most of the projectiles were intercepted but 24 out of 28 ballistic and Zircon missiles went through, one of them partially collapsing an apartment building. Previous attacks on Kyiv have also often involved ballistic missiles but their number has never been as high.

“Importantly, as Russia deploys the increasingly high concentration of ballistic missiles at a time when Ukraine’s capacity to intercept them is under increasing pressure, it chooses to hit populous residential areas and cause terror, rather than focusing strictly on militarily significant targets. Unless Ukraine can secure a steady supply of Patriot missiles, Russia may use the same vulnerability to once again disable and destroy the remaining energy infrastructure that powers and heats Ukraine ahead of the next winter season."