Why does the Iran conflict keep escalating?

Prof. Clionadh Raleigh, ACLED Founder & CEO, said:

“For the US and Iran, this could go on indefinitely. For both sides, it's a better outcome than returning to conflict. Everyone else suffers, but that's not their main concern.

“The latest attacks are part of a much longer cycle of escalation and retaliation, driven by an underlying dispute that remains unresolved. What Iran wants for the Strait of Hormuz is fundamentally different from what everyone else wants, and those positions remain diametrically opposed. 

“For Iran, this is an extremely important component of its way forward, not just for economic reasons, but because the government needs to show it did not give up what it sees as the crown jewel. Control of the strait is also critical to Iran's future engagement with Gulf states. If it loses that leverage, it becomes a major problem rather than a regional hegemon.

“That's why we should expect this cycle of escalation and de-escalation to continue. While these confrontations are not costless for Iran, those costs are still far lower than negotiating with the US over reduced control of the strait. 

“Unless there is some sort of major knockout—which the US has so far been unable to produce—I struggle to see a negotiated solution. Even if attacks subside temporarily, the underlying dispute over the strait will remain, making future flare-ups highly likely.”