Expert Comment
Why has Iran lifted the internet blackout now?
ACLED Founder and CEO, Prof Clionadh Raleigh, on the lifting of the internet blackout in Iran.
Prof. Clionadh Raleigh, Founder and CEO of ACLED, said:
“Eighty-eight days into this conflict, we are still in largely unknown territory where no one trusts each other and the risk of escalation remains extremely high. There is seemingly no resolution now that looks particularly different from what it did on day one of the conflict.
"But it is important to distinguish between the conflict itself and the internet blackout inside Iran. The blackout was not caused by the conflict — it has been in place since January following the uprising against the financial situation of the state and broader anti-government protests across the country (see below). The Iranian government imposed the blackout in response to those protests, during which thousands of people were reportedly killed, and it has continued ever since. It has severely disrupted everyday life inside Iran, damaged parts of the country’s financial activity, and limited how Iranians communicate with the outside world about conditions on the ground.
"There has been a lingering hope among some observers that economic pressure, blockades, or worsening public conditions could lead to an uprising against the Iranian state. But what we have learned — both through this conflict and previous periods of unrest — is that the Iranian system can absorb an incredibly high level of public discontent without fracturing the IRGC system at all. The state has become far more entrenched and militarised, and the assumption that public anger alone would fundamentally destabilise it has consistently proven short-sighted.”
For an interview with Clionadh Raleigh, contact the ACLED press office at [email protected]. See the latest from ACLED on our Iran War Updates website.
ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data) is a global monitor that collects, analyzes, and maps data on conflict and protest. ACLED provides detailed information to help identify, understand, and track patterns and trends in conflict and crisis situations around the world.
