Why is Indonesia’s Papua region becoming deadlier?

Sindy Ajara, East Asia Pacific Senior Research Assistant at ACLED, said: 

“A new deeply worrying pattern is emerging in Papua: conflict-related deaths have risen month on month since the start of 2026. This month alone, more than 40 people have been killed, with civilians making up a significant share of the fatalities, according to ACLED data.

“The conflict between Indonesian state forces and the West Papua National Liberation Army (TPNPB) is entering a more dangerous phase. The military’s new approach uses more advanced weaponry, including aerial and drone strikes, which are proving far more lethal than former patterns of conventional exchanges of gunfire. As well as becoming more deadly, ACLED records the increased frequency of these attacks - nearly threefold since retired military general, President Prabowo Subianto, took office. 

“This escalation is fuelling more aggressive retaliation. In mid-May, a state attack reportedly involved a grenade being dropped in a churchyard, followed by a shooting that killed two rebels. The TPNPB then attacked gold miners in Yahukimo, killing at least 10 people and displacing hundreds. The miners were accused of spying for the military; an accusation that has become a recurring and deadly accusation in Papua, where around 100 miners have been killed since 2018 following this narrative. 

“What is especially worrying is the disregard by both the state forces and the TPNPB of safe spaces, including churches and refugee camps. Both parties are increasingly willing to pursue their objectives with little regard for the civilian cost. There is an urgent need to protect civilians from this rising violence by pursuing a non-violent solution to the conflict.”