Why is Islamic State Mozambique expanding its reach into Niassa?

Peter Bofin, Senior Analyst for Southeast Africa at ACLED, said: 

“Over the past couple of years, Islamic State Mozambique (ISM) has been undertaking sorties to Nampula province in the south and, less frequently, to Niassa province to the west. This is the first time they’ve been in Niassa since May 2025, and only their second significant incursion since the insurgency began in late 2017.

“At this point, we know that at least three people were kidnapped. We don’t know their nationality. The abductions at the camp are likely for ransom, unless those kidnapped have particular skills that the insurgents are interested in, such as medical skills. On balance, it was likely for ransom.

“Such an attack has multiple objectives. Firstly, it is a way to resupply. Food, some weapons and other equipment were likely taken. At least two vehicles were also taken, though later abandoned. Second, it is a significant economic target, and targeting it undermines the state’s control of that part of the country. For the tourism hunting sector in particular, it comes at a bad time, right in the middle of the July–November hunting season in Niassa.

“Finally, it gains a lot of international attention. This is particularly valuable to Islamic State globally, which can use any images that attackers took in future propaganda products.

“However, this is likely to be an isolated raid rather than evidence that ISM is establishing a sustained presence in Niassa. While the insurgents have intelligence networks in the area that can facilitate such an attack, they don’t have the support networks necessary to maintain a presence, including supporting them with supplies. The significant resources of conservation and tourism organisations also make this difficult. Such organisations have access to small aircraft, helicopters and teams of rangers, by which the insurgents can be readily tracked.

“The group that attacked the camp came through Montepuez in western Cabo Delgado province. They were hotly pursued by the Mozambican army in Montepuez and actually prevented from entering Niassa at a point further north. Mozambican operations in that area in the weeks prior to the attack were actually quite successful.

“The ability of one group of ISM fighters to enter Niassa and undertake that attack highlights that ISM still has an advantage in manoeuvrability in rural areas.”