Why is the Somali government linking Southwest opposition forces to Al Shabaab?

On 3 September 2026, clashes occurred in Baidoa between government security forces (SNA) and the Opposition Southwest State Special Police Forces (Opposition-SWSPF), which are allied with the former Southwest president. Opposition forces established checkpoints in the Cunaay, Ceel Cabdi Shiraay, Al-Faras, and Boonkay neighborhoods of Baidoa city in Bay region, South West state,  before withdrawing to their bases outside the city.  This is the second round of confrontation between the two groups in less than a month. On 17 August, the Opposition SWSPF clashed with SNA in Baidoa, resulting in over 51 casualties and multiple soldiers captured.

Mohamed Daud, Somalia Analyst, said: 

“The violence reflects a deepening political crisis in Baidoa, where Mogadishu's efforts to assert control and support a new administration have intensified regional tensions.

"From 2 February 2026 to 28 August, ACLED has recorded at least 78 armed engagements between opposition factions and federally supported forces within the Bay region, predominantly concentrated in the Baidoa district. Twenty-two of these engagements occurred from 4 February to March when the federal government forces mobilized to unseat the former South West State President Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen, following his move to hold a state election and being re-elected on 28 March for a second term.

"The federal government and the new Southwest administration — elected in June — have labeled the opposition forces as terrorists, accusing them of joining forces with the militant group al-Shabaab during the attack in Baidoa city on 17 August, and have started deploying specialized forces to launch an operation. Spokespersons and supporters of the opposition firmly rejected these accusations.  

"The ongoing standoff risks diverting vital federal military resources from the national campaign against al-Shabaab, potentially weakening regional security efforts. Since the new administration took office on 11 June, security in the Bay region has faced a significant surge in violence from al-Shabaab. ACLED data indicates that over 75 al-Shabaab attacks have occurred in the region between 11 June and 28 August.

"If left unresolved, this political standoff between the Opposition-SWSPF and the federal government could escalate beyond a simple power struggle and devolve into a protracted inter-clan conflict, severely exacerbating communal instability across the region.”