Will Colombia’s earthquake strengthen or weaken De la Espriella?

On Monday, a 7.4 magnitude earthquake struck 14 departments of Colombia, particularly Risaralda, Valle del Cauca, and Chocó,  killing at least 250, with hundreds of people still missing and thousands injured, as well as thousands of damaged buildings.

Tiziano Breda, Latin America and the Caribbean Senior Analyst at ACLED, said: 

“The earthquake will be the first test for the new Colombian president. Abelardo de la Espriella ran on a platform to cut public finances, including by defunding the state’s risk management unit. This unit is currently at the forefront of the emergency response. He will likely also be counting on the support of the US, which has already pledged $1 billion in security aid to Colombia to counter drug trafficking, and offered humanitarian support to handle the earthquake emergency.  Whether these funds are enough to effectively deal with the crisis, is yet to be seen. 

“De la Espriella’s additional challenge is the legitimacy gap he started his presidency with. Congress’ ruling coalition is unstable and his opposition has called for a widespread campaign of civil disobedience following his election a few weeks ago. For now, the opposition has prioritized solidarity and unity in order to maximize the effectiveness of the emergency response. But if they perceive De la Espriella’s government to be mismanaging the crisis or the reconstruction resources, they could change their narrative and fuel the distrust of millions of Colombians, culminating in widespread mobilizations in the upcoming weeks and months. By contrast, should Colombians perceive the opposition to be politicizing support for rescue and reconstruction measures and obstructing government efforts to tackle the emergency, the earthquake could strengthen De la Espriella’s stance and provide stability to his presidency."