Will existing conflict in the DRC make Ebola's spread worse?

Ladd Serwat, Africa Senior Analyst at ACLED, said: 

“The epicenter of the Ebola outbreak in Ituri has so far been concentrated in areas affected by violence involving Cooperative for the Development of Congo (CODECO) — a loose coalition of predominantly Lendu militias — and the Convention for the Popular Revolution (CRP), a rebel movement formed under Thomas Lubanga, a Ugandan and convicted as a war criminal by the International Criminal Court. 

“While both groups claim to defend local communities, armed actors in Ituri have historically complicated humanitarian access, particularly where populations are perceived as aligned with rival ethnic communities.

“The wider security environment also raises concerns about the outbreak spreading into areas facing persistent attacks by the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), also known as the Islamic State Central Africa Province (ISCAP). Since the Congolese Ministry of Health confirmed the Ebola outbreak on 15 May, the ADF has carried out violence across at least six localities in Ituri province, with most activity concentrated in Mambasa territory — an area that has accounted for more than 75% of ADF-related violence in Ituri so far in 2026 according to ACLED. 

The overlap between militant activity, population displacement, and weak state control could significantly complicate efforts to contain the outbreak.”