Will Israeli elections bring more military action in Gaza?

On 1 September, Israeli security forces carried out a military operation west of Gaza City, which lasted several hours. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu oversaw the operation, which led to the arrest of the head of Hamas’ internal security apparatus, who was reportedly responsible for hiding and transporting Israeli hostages. 

Nasser Khdour, Middle East Analyst at ACLED, comments on how Netanyahu’s direct involvement in the operation, which comes ahead of the Israeli elections scheduled for next October), keeps security and the war against Hamas at the center of the political debate.  

“The operation was the most significant Israeli incursion into Hamas-controlled areas since the ceasefire took effect on 10 October 2025. Conducted in coordination with anti-Hamas groups, it further weakens Hamas’ standing among Gazans and disrupts the group’s security network — given the arrested member’s reported role in hiding Hamas officials, countering anti-Hamas groups, and supporting its military buildup.

“This was a symbolic rather than a military victory for Israel. While it has continued attacking Gaza —contradicting President Trump’s announcement on 31 July of an agreement with Hamas to move toward the second phase of the Gaza peace plan—, ACLED data shows that Israeli air and drone strikes fell by nearly 39%, from 156 in July to around 95 in August: making August the month with the lowest number of airstrikes since May.

“Netanyahu’s emphasis on his personal role in the command of the attack is what carries an important domestic message ahead of the elections scheduled for next October. It shows that he remains directly involved in the war against Hamas and helps keep security at the center of the political debate, including the government’s stated war objectives of disarming Hamas by force and apprehending those who planned and carried out the 7 October attack, diverting attention away from criticism about his handling of the war.

“Further military actions will be politically useful for Netanyahu, even if it risks undermining progress toward the next phase of the peace agreement. But efforts to disarm Hamas will be even more difficult while the group’s Palestinian rivals continue to operate and coordinate with Israeli forces.”