Will Israel’s growing pressure on Hezbollah lead to further escalation?

On 3 September, Israel announced that it had achieved operational control of the Ali al-Taher Ridge in southern Lebanon, following weeks of military operations against Hezbollah positions and underground infrastructure in the area. The development marks an operational gain for Israel and a setback for Hezbollah, as clearing the group’s positions from the ridge strengthens Israel’s ability to protect towns in the Galilee.

Nasser Khdour, Middle East Analyst at ACLED, said:

“Israel’s control of Ali al-Taher is already translating into greater military pressure on its surrounding area, with ACLED data showing that Israeli air and drone attacks near Ali al-Taher increased during the first week of September compared with the final week of August. This increase was particularly notable in Nabatiyeh city, Nabatiyeh El Faouqa, Kfar Roummane, Zaoutar ech Charqiye, and Arab Salim. Together with Ali al-Taher, these locations accounted for nearly 51% of all Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon between 1 and 7 September —a period that was also deadlier than the whole of August, with 31 fatalities, most of them in Kfar Roummane and Nabatiyeh El Faouqa.

“Hezbollah, however, has largely remained committed to the ceasefire. Although Israel reported three Hezbollah drone attacks in the Ali al-Taher area between 1 and 7 September, Hezbollah did not claim responsibility for any of them, suggesting that the group is still avoiding a broader escalation.

“The increased pressure on Hezbollah ahead of the Israeli elections benefits the current government and Netanyahu’s campaign. But more broadly, Israel is gradually strengthening its position in the Nabatiyeh area, Hezbollah’s main remaining stronghold in southern Lebanon, and north of the Litani River. Despite the US-brokered diplomatic process, Israel’s continued operations reflect its lack of confidence in the Lebanese state and army's ability to disarm Hezbollah.

“Any decision by Hezbollah to escalate would likely be coordinated with Iran. Amid the escalation between US and Iran, Israel is preparing for the possibility of renewed direct conflict with Iran and Hezbollah’s involvement. Israel is betting that its continued military pressure on Hezbollah, control inside the buffer zone, and constraints on Hezbollah’s ability to rebuild will influence Hezbollah and Tehran’s calculations over any future war involving the Lebanon front.”