Will tensions between Yemen and Saudi Arabia escalate again?

Sherwan Hindreen Ali, Middle East Research Manager at ACLED, said:

“Suspected Saudi forces launched several airstrikes at the Houthi-controlled Sanaa International Airport on 13 July in a significant escalation between the Houthis in Yemen and Saudi Arabia.

“The strikes would mark the first Saudi strikes on Sanaa airport ACLED has recorded since 27 February 2022 and were intended to prevent an Iranian Mahan Air aircraft carrying a Houthi delegation from Tehran from landing.

“The Houthis responded swiftly, by launching several missiles on the same day targeting the Abha International Airport in the Saudi Asir province, which were ultimately intercepted by Saudi defenses.

“This sudden flare-up directly threatens a period of relative calm between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia. Since the UN-sponsored truce went into effect on 2 April 2022, Saudi Arabia had reduced its military strikes against the Houthis to a small fraction of what they were during the active phase of the Yemen war. Aside from occasional strikes in Sada governorate and other border areas —usually to deter approaches by African migrants or Yemeni civilians–- the last confirmed Saudi airstrikes in Yemen took place in January 2026, targeting STC forces rather than the Houthis. Similarly, Houthi attacks targeting Saudi Arabia had reduced in number considerably since the ceasefire: the last such attack ACLED records is a Houthi drone attack against Saudi-Bahraini joint forces in the Asir border province on 30 September 2023, while the Abha airport, historically a frequent target of Houthi attacks, was targeted last on 10 February 2022.”

“While significant, the recent escalation between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis is unlikely to lead to an immediate broader escalation. The Iranian plane that the Saudis prevented from landing in Sanaa eventually landed safely at the Hudayda International Airport. This and the fact that the IRG claimed the attack on Sanaa instead of Saudi Arabia suggest that the latter has no appetite to restart a war with the Houthis. 

“This lack of appetite is reinforced by regional realities, particularly now that Saudi Arabia is already involved in the Iran War on its eastern flank and is more reliant than ever on the Red Sea —susceptible to Houthi attacks since 2023–- to ship its hydrocarbons to the international market. The situation is even more precarious for the Houthis themselves: in spite of their belligerent rhetoric, the Houthis have no option but to rely on a Saudi deal for economic relief, which explains why their retaliation was calculated and did not cause any damage or casualties.”