Will Venezuela be able to recover from the earthquakes?

On 30 July, a high-level International Monetary Fund delegation visited Venezuela for the first time in more than two decades, as the government seeks to normalize relations with multilateral financial institutions in order to unlock funds for post-earthquakes reconstruction. Two days later, representatives from the opposition — led by the former head of the National Assembly, Dinorah Figuera — and the government — led by the current head of the legislature, Jorge Rodríguez — kicked off negotiations aimed at establishing a roadmap for elections in the country.

Tiziano Breda, Senior Analyst for Latin America and the Caribbean at ACLED, said: 

"Delcy Rodríguez’s government is walking on thin ice: it is trying to capitalize on the reset of its diplomatic relations to attract funds for reconstruction and economic re-activation, and thus consolidate its role as a reliable counterpart, while accommodating Washington’s plans to shepherd the country towards a political transition. 

“The start of negotiations with the opposition is a testament to that. The earthquake exposed the government's lack of preparation, coordination and efficiency in dealing with a disaster of this scale, fuelling public anger and further weakening its image. At the same time, it has not necessarily strengthened the opposition. Initial calls for early elections misread the public mood, with many Venezuelans instead focused on rescue efforts and rebuilding their communities. The exclusion of the main opposition leader, María Corina Machado, also risks undermining the legitimacy of the process, as well as the Venezuelans’ trust that the agreements reached at the table are implemented. For the time being, the government probably hopes to use the talks to divide opposition forces, channel growing popular demands of political change into this process — thus defusing the outbreak of unrest — and buy time vis-à-vis the Trump administration. They will likely be waiting it out until the mid-term elections.

Focusing on political and economic issues also risks overlooking one of the main challenges for the country’s reconstruction beyond the disaster zone: security. As government attention and resources are redirected towards reconstruction, areas where state services are already weak could receive even less support. This will create opportunities for armed groups and criminal networks to strengthen their influence, expand illicit economies and present themselves as alternative providers of security and services. Recent reports of the Colombian National Liberation Army’s  forced recruitment of locals in the southern Bolívar state exemplify this threat. Ensuring reconstruction funds are allocated transparently and reach affected communities quickly will be critical, but this should not come to the detriment of leaving security challenges in other areas unaddressed. Else, these will likely fuel further instability."