Yemen: What do the STC advances mean for Yemen’s Hadramawt and al-Mahra governorates? — Expert comment

Following the recent advances of the Southern Transitional Council (STC) in Hadramawt and al-Mahra, the situation remains tense and unpredictable in areas of Yemen controlled by the Internationally Recognized Government (IRG). By 5 December, the STC seized the two governorates from the Islah Party-aligned forces of the First Military Region, while the Saudi-backed Nation Shield forces deployed to the same areas, suggesting a new security arrangement in the region. On 8 December, Saudi Arabia temporarily suspended flights from the international airport in Aden, in an attempt to signal that it still holds decisive power, while Riyadh’s negotiator, Muhammad al-Qahtani, remains present in Yemen.

Dr. Luca Nevola, Senior Analyst for Yemen & the Gulf at ACLED, said: 

“The drivers of the escalation are multifaceted, but the recent resumption of Houthi-Saudi talks around the United Nations Peace Roadmap may have played a role in prompting STC’s move, given its longstanding frustration with being excluded from the earlier discussions.

“While it’s highly unlikely that local competition between Saudi and UAE proxies will result in a regional spillover, this escalation could reshape Yemen’s political landscape and will be closely watched.”

Note to editors: For more information or to interview Dr. Luca Nevola, please contact the ACLED press office at [email protected].