Media Citation
Tehran defiant as US–Iran talks remain in deadlock over Hormuz blockade | The New Arab
Source: The New Arab | 22 April 2026
[...]Prof Clionadh Raleigh, president and CEO of the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED), a global monitor that tracks conflict, said Trump's announcement of an indefinite ceasefire highlights how Washington is trying to impose form on an otherwise opaque policy.
"The deterrence is a way to kind of put a shape on what is shapeless in terms of a strategy on the Trump administration side," Raleigh told The New Arab, arguing that the White House was relying on the threat of renewed strikes to force clarity and movement from Tehran rather than a conclusion to the crisis.
[...]Prof Raleigh said Iran’s current position reflects "its frustrations, because its crown jewel, its centre of gravity, has just been kind of wrestled from it and the strategy of the IRGC".
[...] Prof Raleigh was blunt about the trajectory, saying she has "pretty high confidence that there'll be more fighting", and that it may begin if Iran attempts to break the blockade[...]
