Ukraine Conflict Monitor

Spotlight: Russia resumes its air campaign on Kyiv to bend Ukraine’s will to fight

A combined attack of Russian drones, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles launched during the night of 1 and 2 July at the city of Kyiv and its suburbs killed at least 31 civilians and injured over 100 others. The strikes also damaged over 100 residential buildings, as well as educational institutions, a Red Cross warehouse, and oil and energy infrastructure. Russia followed these attacks with a similar mass round of strikes on Kyiv and the Kyiv region on 6 July. Preliminary data point to at least 26 fatalities and tens of injured civilians. The strikes mark a new high of civilian targeting in population centers. ACLED records the third-highest fatality count in Kyiv following the 1 and 2 July overnight strikes since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, on par with the strikes it carried out on 31 July 2025. 

During the week, Russian forces also struck the regional capitals of Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Zaporizhia, Kherson, Odesa, and Mykolaiv, killing at least 34 civilians and injuring over 250 others. They also targeted civilian infrastructure, including apartment buildings and gas stations. The urban centers in front line regions are particularly vulnerable to Russian strikes due to their proximity to Russian launchpads and importance in military logistics and humanitarian service provision. While these strikes highlight Ukraine’s critically low air defense missile stock, they also suggest Moscow’s intent to intensify targeting of civilians and civilian infrastructure behind the front lines, at the cost of breaking civilian casualty records. This intent relies on Vladimir Putin’s presumed theory that continuing deep strikes into Ukraine and their disastrous consequences will be sufficient to break the will of Ukrainian society to fight back. However, this has resulted in little change despite the Ukrainians’ openness to negotiations to end the war.