Iran 101: The cost of US-Israeli escalation

As we mark 100 days of this conflict, the fragile regional ceasefire has been continually tested.

On Sunday, June 7, following an initial exchange of rocket fire, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted a targeted airstrike in the southern suburbs of Beirut. This operation triggered a series of regional responses: overnight, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched a ballistic missile barrage targeting military assets inside Israel. On Monday morning, Israel responded with a wave of airstrikes inside Iranian territory, striking targets near major cities including Tehran, Isfahan, and Tabriz, as well as a petrochemical complex in Mahshahr.

Simultaneously, Yemen's Houthi forces launched a long-range ballistic missile toward the Tel Aviv metropolitan area on Monday morning and issued a formal decree banning all Israeli-linked shipping from navigating the Red Sea.

The War in Numbers

Out of 3,151 total strikes launched by US and Israeli forces, an overwhelming 3,040 resulted in confirmed impacts. This bombardment has inflicted a devastating human toll, resulting in thousands of fatalities. The coalition’s campaign has heavily targeted the heart of Iran, with its capital, Tehran, bearing the brunt of the onslaught as the single most directly affected location, absorbing 603 of those strikes.

In response, Iran launched 1,741 retaliatory strikes, leaving 855 confirmed impacts that resulted  at least 90 reported fatalities. Rather than a singular focus, Iran's retaliatory strikes have spread across the wider region, with the Tel Aviv metropolitan area in Israel and Abu Dhabi in the UAE tied as the most directly affected locations on the receiving end, each hit 84 times.

Over the same 100-day period, the maritime corridors of the region have been heavily militarized.. In the Strait of Hormuz, recent incidents suggest the conflict may be expanding beyond attacks on commercial vessels, with activity increasingly reported around Iran's coastal waters and strategic islands. US and Israeli forces executed 124 distinct operations. By contrast, Iran launched 46 maritime and coastal operations.  

For the US-Israeli coalition, aggression reached its peak on April 6, when forces unleashed a staggering 132 distinct strike events across the region in a single day. Iran’s most intensive retaliatory response occurred earlier in the conflict on March 1, when its forces and regional allies coordinated a wave of 98 distinct strike events across the regional theater.

Impacts across the region

While public attention has focused on specific battlefields, ACLED’s Middle East June 2026 Overview explores how the war’s impacts are being felt beyond the borders of Iran and Israel. 

Nasser Khdour, Middle East Assistant Research Manager at ACLED, said: 

On Israel's Deliberate Defiance of the Lebanon Ceasefire:

"The conflict between Hezbollah and Israel intensified in May as Israeli forces pushed north of the Litani River... At the same time, Israel has increased military pressure on the Lebanese state toward making concessions as the US-sponsored negotiations continue." "Despite the US-brokered ceasefire agreement reached between the Lebanese government and Israel on 4 June and US pressure on Israel not to attack Beirut and its southern suburbs, fighting in Lebanon is set to continue... At the same time, Israel is unlikely to scale back its operations." 

On the Exploitation of the War to Advance Annexation in the West Bank:

"Israeli settler violence in the West Bank has reached a new record high since October 2025. Settlers engaged in more than 380 violent incidents against Palestinians and their property in May... These activities are part of a broader effort to push Palestinians away from their farms in order to annex more territories. At the same time, wider regional conflicts have shifted international attention away from Israeli actions in the West Bank, allowing more settler attacks to continue."

"This is also happening alongside continued impunity for settler violence against Palestinians, as Israeli soldiers increasingly operate alongside settlers. Since taking power in 2022, the Israeli government has encouraged settlement expansion, including the establishment of unauthorized outposts built near Palestinian communities."

Growing territorial control in Gaza:

"Israel's control in Gaza has increased from 53% since the ceasefire to around 60% according to Israeli official reports, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announcing his intent to expand control to 70%."

"Israel's expansion westward puts more pressure on Gaza's civilian population, forcing them to leave areas where access to services is becoming limited due to Israel's firing policy and restrictions on humanitarian operations. As ACLED data show, this expansion occurred amid Israel's continued attacks near the Yellow Line, where it has been using drone strikes, direct shooting, and sniper and tank fire, which has led to the killing and injuring of civilians, including women and children."

For more information, or to arrange an interview, contact the ACLED Press Office.