Q&A: What’s next for Iran’s leadership and attacks in the region?

Tensions between Iran, Israel, and the United States continue to escalate amid sustained bombardments across the Gulf and renewed exchanges involving Lebanon. The reported death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has intensified uncertainty around Iran’s internal command structure, while questions also remain over how Gulf states may respond as regional alignments come under increasing strain. ACLED CEO Prof. Clionadh Raleigh comments on where it stands and what’s to come.

Where does Iran’s leadership stand now? 

Iran’s succession system has four layers for each key regime role. With the first two layers now eliminated, Iran faces an unclear chain of command across its military and security institutions, which in itself risks factional splits within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the country’s intelligence apparatus. There is also potential for a breakdown of local security as authority fragments.

Approximately 10% of the Iranian population strongly supports the regime; the remainder falls into a large but unorganized opposition movement, which can lead to a risk of local power struggles as central control weakens.

What will happen in the region?

Iran will attempt to impose costs across the region through attacks on tourist areas, expat zones, and US bases. We will also see a surge in activity from Iran’s proxy network: Yemen’s Houthis, Shia militias in Iraq, and, of course, Hezbollah — especially as Israel carries out intensive airstrikes targeting Dahieh, Hezbollah’s stronghold in the southern suburbs of the Lebanese capital.

There are border security concerns in the Balochistan area, which falls in southwestern Pakistan; southeastern Iran; and southern Afghanistan. We will see shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and likely a rise in oil prices. China’s oil supply will be severely disrupted, with ramifications for its stance on the conflict.

While the US and Israel have said they are pursuing regime change rather than deterrence, in practical terms, the costs of this will be borne by civilians, with a threat to wider regional stability as regional alignment is increasingly fractured.