Report
10 Conflicts to Worry About in 2020
Annual report reviews data for 10 key conflicts and trends to watch in the coming months.
Our annual special report reviews the past year of data for 10 key conflicts with a look toward trends to watch in the coming months. Access ACLED data directly through the export tool, and find more information about ACLED methodology in our Resource Library.
To explore an interactive visualization of this special report, click here.
In 2019, the world witnessed a drastic increase in violent disorder that assumed many forms: protests from Lebanon to Hong Kong and Iraq to Chile; geopolitical competition in Yemen and Syria; dominant insurgencies in Somalia and Afghanistan; a cartel-insurgency in Mexico; and a diffuse, adaptable militant threat across the Sahel. Two problems immediately stand out: the world is significantly more violent now than a decade ago, and today’s conflict forms are strongly localized — types of violence, agents, targets, and solutions are unique to their local context. This is partially because governments in the world’s most violent places are no longer in control of their territories, nor show any interest or ability to resume control through direct or indirect authority. Governments are also much more likely to use violence against their citizens without international reproach. The rise of authoritarianism — and impunity — has generated significant public reaction in the form of mass protest movements, but it has also increased the level of violence imposed upon civilians and political competition.
In this report, ACLED has chosen 10 conflicts that demonstrate how violent political disorder is evolving in places it has festered for decades — such as Afghanistan — as well as in relatively new spaces — such as the United States. Across these 10 cases, observers have often concentrated on active threats and acts of violence, and less so on the latent risks that may produce new agents, modalities, targets, and opportunities for violence. If the past decade offers any lessons, it is that conflict can take many forms, and can arise from a range of local vulnerabilities if stoked. Here, we review 10 situations in which conflict is likely to change and worsen in the coming year, creating new dilemmas for governments and citizens.
10 Conflicts to Worry About in 2020
The Sahel
High risk of conflicts diffusing and infecting neighbors
Last year, ACLED assessed that the Sahel was “most likely to be the geopolitical dilemma of 2019.” The Sahel now hosts more multiple, moving threats than it did in 2018: Nigeria’s Boko Haram has become a regional threat; Cameroon’s north is beset by cross-border violence; Chad is beginning to experience insurgency attempts in several uncoordinated spaces; Niger’s Tillaberi region – once able to stay the pressure from its borders – is now within the sights of an IS affiliate (Al Jazeera, 22 September 2019); and Burkina Faso is engulfed in conflict across all regions, as groups from Mali continue their southern encroachment. The latter three states host the worst violence: violence rates in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger doubled in 2019 compared to 2018.
The growing threat posed by Islamist militant groups has attracted a number of foreign powers, with intersecting deployments of French, American, African, and EU troops all present in the region — adding to an already complex security situation. Still, the most serious and destabilizing acts of violence are perpetrated by local militias, recruited by or possibly partnered with either Jihadist organizations or domestic governments. These dynamic arrangements are actively reconfiguring the political geography of states at a time when ideologies and alliances are in flux across the Sahel.
While the Sahel crisis has been strongly cast as an African example of the global Jihadi threat, the most recent surge in violence underscores that local, domestic, often ethnicized tensions generate and perpetuate the most lasting instability. But it also has important lessons about how groups change and evolve to foster their adaptation in new environments and circumstances: those groups have diffused through taking advantage of the local authority and political competitions that have beset northern Mali, Burkina Faso since 2012, and, increasingly, Niger.
What to watch for in 2020:
Yet, there is no doubt that the conflicts in the Sahel are increasingly inter-related despite the overtly local nature of alliance-making. At the local level, ethnic identities exploited to foster insurgency can be linked across different states...
Mexico
High risk of cartel ‘criminal market’ developing into insurgency
Mexico is facing a deteriorating security situation and continues to experience unprecedented levels of criminal and drug-related violence. 2019 has registered a record number of homicides yet again, after 2017 and 2018 broke previous records: over 31,000 homicides were recorded nationwide over the past 12 months, and the government just released data indicating over 60,000 people have disappeared since 2006...
What to watch for in 2020:
Incidents like the retaliatory attack by the Sinaloa cartel following the arrest of El Chapo’s son raise fears that the cartels may appear stronger than the military...
Data on political violence and protest activity in Latin America and the Caribbean will be published in February 2020...
Yemen
High risk of persistent conflict amid shifting frontlines and alliances
Five years into the conflict, the scale of destruction in Yemen has reached unprecedented levels: more than 100,000 people are estimated to have died as a direct result of the violence, including over 12,000 civilians killed in targeted attacks...
What to watch for in 2020:
Like 2019, the new year is already being met with a mixture of hope and skepticism over the prospects for peace in Yemen...
India
At risk of Modi’s plans derailing with uncontrollable effects
India’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led government is navigating a complex landscape of political discord involving long-standing international and domestic conflicts...
What to watch for in 2020:
Heightened tension between India and Pakistan surrounding the Kashmir issue...
Somalia
High risk of Al Shabaab adapting to dominate and isolate a weak government
Despite continued AMISOM operations and an increase in US airstrikes throughout 2019, Al Shabaab remains a major threat to Somali society...
What to watch for in 2020:
The recent uptick in Al Shabaab operations against targets in both Somalia and Kenya is likely to continue into 2020...
Iran
High risk of center deteriorating amid regime escalation at home and abroad
Tensions between Iran and the US have steadily intensified since 2018, evolving into armed confrontation after the Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps...
What to watch for in 2020:
There are a number of questions remaining about how the military conflict between the US and Iran will unfold...
Afghanistan
High risk of rising violence targeting civilians
The year 2019 began and ended with hopes for a peace agreement between the US and the Taliban to end the 18-year war...
What to watch for in 2020:
The new decade started for Afghanistan with the Trump administration pushing ahead with plans to partially withdraw US troops...
Ethiopia
At risk of increased fragmentation despite a popular leader
From fatal fights on university campuses to serious armed conflict, political violence in Ethiopia has shifted from resistance against the regime to ethnic strife...
What to watch for in 2020:
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has thus far maintained a delicate balance between advancing the interests of his own ethnic group, the Oromo...
Lebanon
High risk of protests devolving into organized violence
Government mismanagement and a worsening economic crisis has resulted in a popular protest movement against Lebanon’s political system...
What to watch for in 2020:
Despite intermittent clashes, the protest movement remained remarkably peaceful until late January...
United States
Developed, democratic political system at risk of turning violent
Violent political instability is on the rise in the US...
What to watch for in 2020:
The trends identified in ACLED’s pilot data are likely to intensify around the 2020 general election...
