Breaking the Barriers: One Year of Demonstrations in Lebanon

Nearly one year has passed since a large protest movement calling for political renewal began to sweep across Lebanon. The movement, popularly dubbed thawra (revolution), has exposed the negligence and ineptitude of the Lebanese ruling class. Yet, it has failed to produce the radical political overhaul protesters have been demanding.

Last January, ACLED included Lebanon among the 10 conflicts and crisis situations to worry about in 2020. ACLED data show that demonstrations grew violent over the first half of 2020, revealing how the political tensions that surfaced in the fall of 2019 did not decline in the new year. Twelve months on from the beginning of the movement in October 2019, this report provides an overview of one year of popular mobilization in Lebanon.

Over the past year, ACLED has collaborated with Lebanon Support to supplement the real-time data collection of political violence and demonstration events in Lebanon. The result of this partnership is an updated dataset of over 6,700 events recorded between January 2016 and October 2020, providing comprehensive coverage of political disorder across the country (see Figure 1).

Nearly three-quarters of all recorded events occurred in the aftermath of the October 2019 uprising.

The Onset of Thawra (October 2019 – January 2020)

On 17 October 2019, hundreds of activists flocked to downtown Beirut to protest against draconian measures introduced by the Lebanese government in a desperate effort to reduce public debt. Within hours, what started as a rally against the proposed austerity budget turned into a nationwide rejection of the country’s octogenarian political establishment.

Despite sporadic unrest, demonstrations were overwhelmingly peaceful until the end of December. Overall, nearly 83% of all demonstration events recorded by ACLED between October and December 2019 were peaceful, with security forces and armed militias showing relative restraint in the use of violence to avoid escalation (see Figure 3).

Mass rallies were held in approximately 300 towns and villages across the country.

The Lockdown Hiatus and the Resurgence of Unrest (February – July 2020)

The outbreak of COVID-19 hastened Lebanon’s economic meltdown. The country partially defaulted on its debt obligations in March. A series of strict lockdown measures to limit the spread of coronavirus disproportionately hit the most vulnerable segments of the Lebanese population.

After the first reported cases of COVID-19 and the subsequent lockdown announced on 15 March, demonstration activity returned to pre-uprising levels. Demonstrations declined not only in overall numbers, but also in their geographic spread. Security forces took advantage of the dwindling mobilization to clear squares and roads of protest camps.

Even more worryingly, reports indicate that security forces are showing less restraint.

The Post-Beirut Blast (August – October 2020)

On 4 August, 2,750 tons of ammonium nitrate stored in wooden containers detonated in a warehouse at Beirut’s port, causing an explosion that killed over 200 people and injured over 6,500. Up to 300,000 people lost their homes as the explosion ripped through Beirut and its neighboring municipalities.

Political responsibility for the disaster became manifest. Although the blast was not deliberate, years of negligence from customs officials, judicial authorities, security forces, and political appointees allowed the dangerous material to sit in Beirut’s port in the absence of any safety measures.

A spike in the number of conflict-related fatalities between August and September.

In Focus: The North and Akkar

Along with the capital Beirut, Tripoli was the main hotbed of the October uprising. Peaceful rallies drew thousands of people in Al-Nour Square, energizing a city with a reputation for conservatism (The National, 11 May 2020).

In Focus: Baalbek-Hermel and Beqaa

The Baalbek-Hermel and Beqaa governorates lie on Lebanon’s eastern border with Syria. Until 2017, Baalbek was the site of major clashes between the LAF and Hezbollah against Islamist armed groups.

In Focus: Beirut and Mount Lebanon

Beirut and Mount Lebanon governorates account for approximately 39% of all demonstration events recorded between October 2019 and October 2020. ACLED records demonstrations in nearly 120 locations across the two governorates.

In Focus: The South and Nabatieh

In southern Lebanon, the absence of large urban centers outside Sidon, Tyr, and Nabatieh has hampered popular mobilization in the South and Nabatieh governorates, with only 48 locations across the two governorates recording demonstration events.

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