Report
China’s maritime presence around Taiwan is becoming the new normal
Tensions around the island are elevated as China aims to normalize its jurisdiction claims.
Executive summary
Taiwan’s 2026 Han Kuang exercises tested a markedly wider scope of scenarios and capabilities than in previous years. The exercises focused on preparing for a potential Chinese blockade and assault, introducing new elements, including an internet disruption drill amid elevated Chinese maritime activity around Taiwan. Chinese activity has been elevated since June and included efforts to influence maritime traffic, and China's first reported naval exercise with a foreign navy east of Taiwan.
As Japan and the Philippines increasingly focus on their territorial claims in the region, China is expected to sustain its heightened military and gray-zone pressure east of Taiwan in the coming months to normalize its jurisdictional claims.
Chinese activity around Taiwan has increased since June
Since June, Chinese government-affiliated research and survey vessels and the coast guard have increased their activity around Taiwan (see table below). Notably, there was a significant increase in research vessels operating at unusually slow speeds east of Taiwan, including near undersea communications infrastructure, raising concerns about potential mapping, surveillance, or intelligence-gathering activity.
Movements and exercises around Taiwan in 20261
| Month | Number of events involving China | Number of events involving other actors**2 |
|---|---|---|
| January | 4 | 3 |
| February | 5 | - |
| March | 9 | 1 |
| April | 3 | 1 |
| May | 8 | 1 |
| June | 23 | 1 |
| July | 21 | 1 |
| 1 - 14 August | 8 | 2 |
The China Coast Guard has also established routine law enforcement operations and inspection patrols east of Taiwan, beginning with early-June operations in which Chinese authorities reported inspecting foreign vessels and addressing maritime violations. Beijing has linked these operations to Japan–Philippines discussions on maritime boundary delimitation that began in late May to delimit their overlapping exclusive economic zones (EEZs) east of Taiwan. China has argued that the region falls under its maritime jurisdiction. This increase in activity suggests the bilateral talks may have been used as a pretext for a broader effort to normalize Chinese maritime activity beyond the Taiwan Strait.
Additionally, China has expanded military activity in the area, conducting a live-fire exercise east of Taiwan, near Japan’s southernmost island, Okinotori, on 19 July. Taken together, these activities highlight Beijing’s efforts to normalize its law enforcement presence and reinforce its jurisdictional claims around Taiwan.
Taiwan strengthens resilience while China maintains maritime pressure
Taiwan’s 2026 Han Kuang exercises, held from 5 to 14 August, marked a significant expansion in the scenarios and capabilities tested. Beyond the regular military operations held each year, this year’s drills tested multidomain defense readiness through the first joint navy–coast guard anti-blockade exercise, the first simulated internet disruption, a presidential evacuation scenario, and the use of enhanced counter-drone capabilities.
The integration of anti-blockade activities into the Han Kuang exercises comes as China seeks to normalize maritime law enforcement activity around Taiwan in what may be an attempt to test foreign compliance with its maritime directives and, in doing so, lay the groundwork for potential blockade operations. Between 6 and 9 August, the Maritime Safety Administration issued traffic control instructions for vessels entering the Strait, citing safety concerns amid Typhoon Dolphin. Following the announcement of instructions, China Coast Guard ships tailed a Japanese Coast Guard vessel seeking shelter from the typhoon.
Also coinciding with the Han Kuang exercises, and specifically with the navy–coast guard anti-blockade exercise off Taiwan’s east coast on 12 August, a Chinese navy frigate conducted a passing exercise with an Indonesian navy frigate in the Philippine Sea. Chinese state media described the exercise as significant for demonstrating China’s claimed rights and jurisdiction over its EEZ east of Taiwan, while Indonesia characterized it as a routine passing exercise. By holding a military exercise with a foreign navy in the eastern part of Taiwan, China seeks to normalize its military presence in the area and its claimed jurisdiction.
Outlook
China is likely to continue its elevated military and gray-zone presence around Taiwan in the coming months, particularly to the island’s east, given Beijing’s intention to normalize its presence and jurisdiction in the area and its announcement of routine law enforcement operations and inspection patrols in July. This comes as the USS George Washington departed the Pacific in mid-August, leaving the region without a US aircraft carrier for an unspecified period and raising questions about the United States’ commitment to maintaining a sustained military presence in the Asia-Pacific region.
Such sustained gray-zone activity will increase the risk of maritime incidents. Longer term, the expansion of such activities will gradually erode the existing maritime status quo around Taiwan.
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Footnotes
- 1
*Includes movement of forces and military exercises as defined in ACLED’s methodology.
- 2
**Includes Canada, Japan, the Netherlands, Taiwan, and the United States
